A month on from our April update, the picture has become more nuanced. Longer-dated contracts have eased from their March highs, but near-term prices have firmed up again over the bank holiday weekend. Here is what UK businesses need to know going into May.
Energy Market News
The Iran conflict has now passed day 66, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to commercial shipping. The bank holiday weekend brought fresh escalation. US forces engaged Iranian fast boats, and the UAE intercepted Iranian missiles for the first time since the notional ceasefire period began. Tanker movements through the strait remain at a fraction of pre-war levels, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported to have seized further vessels attempting transit.
The most consequential development for European gas came on 4 May, when QatarEnergy extended its force majeure declaration on LNG supplies through to mid-June. Qatar accounts for roughly 20 per cent of global LNG exports, and the Ras Laffan facility damaged by Iranian missile strikes in March has lost around 17 per cent of its capacity for what could be three to five years of repairs. Italian importer Edison has already replaced ten cancelled cargoes with US LNG, and analysts increasingly expect the force majeure to extend beyond mid-June.
European storage is the other story worth watching. As of 4 May, EU underground gas storage stood at 34.14 per cent full, well below the five-year average heading into the summer refill season. The EU’s notional target is 90 per cent by 1 November, but ACER has already signalled that 80 per cent is the more realistic working assumption. Hitting either figure will require sustained LNG imports through the summer at premium prices, which will put a floor under the forward curve.
Closer to home, National Gas has reiterated that UK storage and supply are expected to cover summer demand comfortably, with scope to export into Europe if needed. Norwegian flows have been steady, and warm weather through April kept demand subdued. The structural cost increases that took effect on 1 April, including TNUoS rises and the Nuclear RAB charge, are now feeding through to bills.
Recent Price Movements
The big picture from the past month is that longer-dated contracts have come down from their March peaks, but near-term prices have firmed up again on the back of the weekend escalation.
Settlement prices on 4 May 2026 from ICE Endex / SEFE:
NBP gas Summer 2027, the standard benchmark contract, settled at 85.96p per therm, down around 9 per cent over the past 30 days. Calendar 2027 gas settled at 93.30p per therm, down around 8.6 per cent over 30 days but still well above the pre-conflict level of around 72p per therm in February. Calendar 2028 gas settled at 71.99p per therm.
Near-term gas tells a different story. June 2026 settled at 112.10p per therm, up 2.1 per cent on the week. Winter 2026 gas settled at 115.39p per therm, up 2.5 per cent on the week.
UK power Summer 2027 settled at £75.31 per MWh, down around 3.1 per cent over 30 days. Calendar 2027 settled at £81.77 per MWh. Winter 2026 power settled at £97.73 per MWh, up 2 per cent on the week. Day-ahead power has been more volatile, climbing to £106.25 per MWh on 4 May as cold weather and reduced wind output tightened near-term supply.
Brent crude is trading around $113 per barrel, having spent most of the past two weeks above $100 as US-Iran talks have stalled and restarted repeatedly.
The honest read is this. Anyone renewing for delivery from summer 2027 onwards is looking at materially better numbers than a month ago. Anyone renewing for delivery starting this winter or earlier is looking at prices that have firmed up over the past week and could move further if the geopolitical picture deteriorates.
What This Means for Your Renewal
The split between near-term and longer-dated contracts is the most useful thing to understand right now. Where on the forward curve your contract sits matters more than headline price commentary suggests.
If your renewal covers delivery starting from summer 2027 or later, the past month has worked in your favour. Calendar 2027 gas is around 8.6 per cent cheaper than 30 days ago, and Calendar 2028 looks more reasonable still. There is a case for fixing now if budget certainty matters more than chasing further falls.
If your renewal covers delivery this winter or the first half of 2027, the picture is tighter. Near-term contracts have firmed up on Middle East developments, and storage refill economics will keep upward pressure on summer pricing. Waiting carries real risk if the conflict picture worsens. A quick conversation now to understand where your specific renewal sits is worthwhile.
If you are out of contract or on a deemed rate, you are paying spot or near-spot prices that have been volatile and elevated. Moving onto a fixed contract should be a priority regardless of the broader market direction.
How Dyce Helps
We offer fixed-term fixed-price contracts from 12 to 36 months for businesses that want certainty on their energy costs. Our buying team monitors the wholesale market daily and can help you time the market when the curve moves in your favour. Switching is fully digital and takes minutes. Our customer service team is based in Yorkshire, so when you call you speak to someone who knows your account.
Renewable electricity and carbon-neutral gas are available as optional add-ons if you want them.
Your Action Plan for May
Check your contract end date this week. If you renew between June and December, the time to start the conversation is now rather than the week before expiry.
Tell us your target price. Share your renewal date and budget expectations and we will monitor the market on your behalf, flagging when conditions align with what you need.
Get a no-obligation quote. Visit dyce-energy.co.uk/quote for pricing based on your actual consumption and location. In a market this volatile, our quotes are valid for a short window, so quick decisions tend to secure better outcomes.
The next four weeks will be telling. Qatar’s mid-June force majeure deadline, EU storage progress, and any movement on US-Iran talks will all set the tone for the second half of 2026. Businesses with fixed contracts in place are protected. Those without are exposed to whatever comes next
