Energy Market June 2025
June kept us on our toes: early supply hiccups nudged wholesale prices higher, but milder weather, steadier liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) arrivals and softer carbon costs later calmed nerves. Even so, gas and power both ended the month firmer than in May, proving the “new normal” still includes sharp daily swings.
June 2025 in review – why wholesale prices moved
- Norwegian maintenance – A planned outage at the Kollsnes processing plant cut exports by as much as thirty-nine million cubic metres a day, squeezing North-West European supply.
- Thin LNG schedule – Until a late-month Qatari cargo berthed at South Hook, the UK had received only two tankers in June, limiting send-out flexibility.
- Storage lag – European underground gas reserves stood just fifty-six-point-nine percent full on 26 June, nine points below the five-year norm, keeping forward contracts supported.
- Cheaper carbon – EU Emissions Trading System allowances slipped to around seventy euros per tonne, trimming generating costs and easing spark spreads.
- Weather swing – A succession of mild, windy days cut commercial demand and boosted wind output, pushing day-ahead power under forty-two pounds per megawatt-hour (£/MWh) mid-month.
Bottom line – Front-month gas settled on 28 June at 81.7 pence per therm, up 6.5 pence (about nine percent) from end-May. July baseload power closed at £81.6/MWh, roughly £4.0/MWh (five percent) higher month-on-month.
Headlines your business should note
- The UK Industrial Strategy promises to cut electricity costs for over seven-thousand energy-intensive manufacturers by up to twenty-five percent from 2027.
- National Grid ESO’s Markets Roadmap 2025 outlines new balancing and reserve mechanisms that could reshape wholesale price signals.
- Ofgem has paused most new demand-connection applications while it reforms the queuing system, potentially delaying large-site electrification projects.
- Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have raised the risk of LNG disruption to Milford Haven later this summer.
What could move prices in July 2025
What to watch | Why it matters | Possible price effect |
Ongoing Norwegian repairs | Any delay to the Kollsnes restart could remove up to thirty-five million m³ of daily imports | Bullish for gas and power |
Asian heatwave LNG pull | Higher spot prices in Asia may divert cargoes away from Europe | Bullish, wider summer-winter spread |
UK heatwave risk | Hot, still days lift cooling demand and cut wind output | Bullish for peak-time power |
EU carbon-market talks | 2040 climate-target debate resumes 2 July, jolting allowance prices | Mixed – high carbon lifts power, low carbon caps |
Strait of Hormuz tension | Disruption to Qatari shipping threatens one-third of UK LNG | Strongly bullish, sharp volatility |
What this means for your energy budget
Even though prices sit far below last winter’s spikes, today’s market remains headline-driven. A single LNG delay or maintenance extension can move near-term gas by ten pence per therm before lunch, and power follows fast. Fixing a competitive rate for the next twelve, twenty-four or thirty-six months now can shield your budget from these shocks, underpin cash-flow planning and free you to focus on growing the business while policymakers reshape the energy landscape through 2027.
How Dyce Energy turns insight into advantage
Your challenge | How Dyce helps | Benefit to you |
Choosing the right buying moment | Market specialists track live drivers and flag windows to act | Secure sharper rates, lower costs |
Budget certainty | Fixed-price electricity and gas for 12-36 months | Predictable bills, easier forecasting |
Hitting sustainability goals | 100 percent renewable electricity and carbon-neutral gas via global offset projects | Cut emissions, impress customers |
Switching hassle | Digital sign-up switches you in as little as forty-eight hours | No downtime, minimal admin |
Your action plan for July 2025
- Check your current contract end-date and note the notice period.
- Tell your Dyce account manager your target price for a July fix.
- Explore upgrading to 100 percent renewable electricity for instant Scope 2 savings.
Ready to steady your bills? Get a free no obligation quote from us today!
