Energy Market Update – October 2025

September was steady overall but never dull. Norwegian gas maintenance eased by month-end, European storage stayed high, and a windy spell briefly crashed UK day-ahead power below thirty pounds per megawatt-hour. Forward contracts barely budged, reminding us that calm averages can hide sharp intraday swings. Planning ahead still pays. 

September in review – why wholesale prices moved

• Norwegian flows dipped, then recovered. Planned works and restart issues curbed exports early on; by late month, flows were back above three hundred million cubic metres per day, calming nerves. 
• Storage stayed comfortable. European gas stores sat well into the eighty-percent zone, giving a solid buffer as heating season nears. 
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG) wobble in France. A strike triggered force majeure at French LNG terminals on 26 September, briefly lifting risk premiums before wider supply steadied sentiment. 
• Wind whipsawed power. A blustery mid-month day saw UK day-ahead baseload clear at about £28–£29/MWh, with gas-fired generation curtailed; prices normalised as winds eased. 
• Macro costs ticked higher. Late-month commentary flagged small rises in oil and carbon, adding a gentle floor under gas and power. 

Bottom line. On 30 September the new NBP* front-month (November) traded around 83–84 pence per therm; front-month UK baseload hovered in the mid-£70s to low-£80s/MWh region through the month, both close to late-August levels. *NBP = National Balancing Point (UK gas hub). 

Headlines your business should note

• Long-duration electricity storage (LDES) moves to assessment. Seventy-seven projects (about 28.7 gigawatts) cleared eligibility for Ofgem’s cap-and-floor scheme, including pumped-hydro and flow batteries. This should cut curtailment and smooth prices over time. 
• Market-wide Half-Hourly Settlement (MHHS) milestones went live. Elexon’s 22 September Non-Standard Release implemented core code changes (P478) and industry supply number format updates (REC R0083) as part of MHHS-relevant for billing data and settlement accuracy. 
• Non-commodity costs in focus. New September analysis warns rising network and policy charges could add materially to large energy-user bills over the next few years-worth factoring into budgets and efficiency plans.

What could move prices in October

What this means for your energy budget

Short, sharp swings can appear even in “quiet” months-September’s sub-£30/MWh day-ahead auction was a case in point. Forward prices did not collapse with it, but such moments often precede brisk corrections. If your renewal is approaching, consider locking a competitive fixed price to protect cash flow against surprise spikes, while still targeting value when windows open. 

How Dyce Energy turns insight into advantage

Your action plan for October

1. Check your contract end-date (and any notice period) to avoid rolling onto higher out-of-contract rates.
2. Tell Dyce your target price so we can move when the market aligns.
3. Explore green options (renewable electricity and carbon-neutral gas) to future-proof and meet goals. 
4. Request a quote: Visit dyce-energy.co.uk/quote for a bespoke price.