Energy Market Update – September 2025
August brought a steadier tone. Gas and power softened at times as European storage built and liquefied natural gas arrivals stayed firm, although late-month Norwegian maintenance kept traders cautious. For SMEs, the message is unchanged: prices can move quickly, so planning matters.
August in review – why wholesale prices moved
- Norwegian maintenance trimmed supply. Planned work reduced flows, including cuts of around twelve million cubic metres a day at the Troll field near month-end, with deeper curbs signalled for early September.
- EU storage kept rising. European gas stores ended August around seventy-eight percent full, offering a buffer going into autumn.
- LNG helped balance the system. Consistent cargoes into North-West Europe offset lower pipelines and eased short-term tightness.
- Wind picked up late in the month. Higher UK wind output reduced gas-fired generation requirements and helped cap power prices.
- Carbon edged up. European carbon benchmarks were little changed to slightly higher by the final week of August.
- Bottom line. By 30–31 August, UK front-month gas traded close to 77 pence per therm (p/therm), broadly flat on July, while day-ahead baseload power hovered around the mid-£70s to low-£80s per megawatt-hour, a touch lower than the previous month.
Headlines your business should note
- CfD AR7 application window ran 7–27 August. The government opened the 2025 Contracts for Difference round, starting the process to add more clean capacity in coming years.
- National Grid submitted the Norwich–Tilbury line application (29 August). A 114-mile link to move offshore wind from East Anglia into demand centres, aimed at cutting constraints and curtailment costs.
- Peak Norwegian maintenance begins late August into September. System operator guidance flagged reduced exports during early September, keeping risk premia in gas.
- Greenhouse Gas Removals business model summary published (August). Government set out the framework for revenue support to scale removals, signalling momentum behind net-zero infrastructure.
What could move prices in September
What to watch | Why it matters | Possible price effect |
Peak Norwegian maintenance | Lower pipeline flows can tighten European supply | Upward for gas, knock-on to power |
LNG cargo arrivals to NW Europe | Strong arrivals ease supply risk, weak arrivals tighten it | Downward if strong, upward if weak |
Wind and weather patterns | Windier, milder spells reduce gas burn for power and heating | Downward for power and gas |
EU storage injection pace | Faster injections rebuild buffers, slower pace narrows headroom | Mixed, depends on trend |
CfD AR7 assessment phase | Signals future renewables build and investor confidence | Limited near-term, supports longer-term stability |
What this means for your energy budget
Short-term prices can swing on weather runs, system outages or shipping schedules. Even when the monthly trend looks calm, single-day moves can be sharp. If your renewal is approaching, consider fixing a competitive price now. A fixed rate today can ring-fence your costs against autumn volatility and make cash-flow planning simpler. Our team can benchmark terms across 12 to 36 months to match your budget horizon.
How Dyce Energy turns insight into advantage
Your challenge | How Dyce helps | Benefit to you |
Timing the market amid maintenance and weather risks | Guidance from Dyce specialists on when to act | Better timing, sharper quotes |
Need budget certainty for the next one to three years | Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts, 12–36 months | Predictable bills and easier forecasting |
Want credible sustainability options | 100 percent renewable electricity and carbon-neutral gas via global offset projects | Visible Scope 2 progress with minimal admin |
Switching without hassle | Fast digital onboarding, supply in as little as 48 hours | Save time and avoid disruption |
Your action plan for September
- Check your contract end-date and notice period so you do not lapse onto higher rates.
- Tell us your target price per unit so we can act the moment the market aligns.
- Explore renewable electricity and carbon-neutral gas to support sustainability goals.
- Visit dyce-energy.co.uk/quote for bespoke prices.
